Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi / Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü / Endüstri Mühendisliği Bölümü
A risk-sensitive approach for airline network revenue management problems
Havayolu ağı gelir yönetimi problemleri için risk-duyarlı bir yaklaşım
Demet Çetiner - 2007Teze Git (tez.yok.gov.tr)
In this thesis, airline network revenue management problem is considered forthe case with no cancellations and overbooking. In literature, there exist severalapproximate probabilistic and deterministic mathematical models developed inorder to maximize expected revenue at the end of the reservation period. Theaim of this study is to develop models considering also the risks involved inthe proposed booking control policies. Two linear programming models areproposed which incorporate the variance of the revenue. The objective of themodels is to effectively balance the tradeoff between the expectation and varianceof the revenue. The performances of the proposed models are compared tothe previous models through a numerical study. The seat allocations resultingfrom the mathematical models are used in a simulation model working with severalbooking control policies. The probability distributions of the revenues areinvestigated and the revenues are compared in terms of expectation, standarddeviation, coefficient of variation and probability of poor performance.It is observed that the use of the proposed models decreases the variability of therevenue and thereby the risk of probability of poor performance. Also, the expectedrevenues obtained by implementing the solutions of the proposed modelsivwith nested booking control policies turn out to be higher than other probabilisticmodels as long as the degree of variance incorporation is within someinterval. When compared with the deterministic models, the proposed modelsprovides for the decision makers with alternative, preferable policies in terms ofthe expectation and the variability measures.Keywords: Revenue management, Booking policy, Risk, Variance, Bayesian update.